Pastoralism at a crossroads: What does the future hold for Ethiopia’s pastoral societies?

In the vast and rugged landscapes of Ethiopia, the Afar, Somali, and Borana communities have long thrived as pastoralists, relying on cattle, goats, sheep, and camels for their livelihoods. Livestock also serves as a symbol of pride and social status. These communities have sustained themselves on the abundance of natural pastures, grasses, and trees for a long time. 

However, the past decades have marked a profound shift in their way of life, driven by a confluence of heightened climate change, recurrent droughts, land degradation, desertification, conflict, pestilences, population pressure, and socio-political issues. While these issues are not new, their amplified intensification in recent years has forced these communities to contemplate alternative futures. This blog delves into the core issues facing pastoral communities, their interconnected nature, and the potential trajectories that lie ahead.

Until about a decade ago, despite periodic droughts, Ethiopian pastoralists boasted about two to three digits heads of cattle per household, enjoying a landscape where droughts were relatively less frequent and severe. After dry spells, their fertile land then recovered quickly with the return of rains, rejuvenating grasses and indigenous plants, allowing communities to bounce back from environmental setbacks. 

The dynamics have, however, markedly changed in recent years. For instance, I personally know many individuals, including members of my family, who owned around 100 heads of cattle just eight years ago. Now, they have either lost all their cattle or are left with only a small fraction of what they once had, leading some to take their own lives, move to  IDP camps, or succumb to famine.

During my recent visit to the Afar and Somali regions, I witnessed a stark reality: all pastoralists reported losing at least half of their herds during severe droughts. In Borana, the situation is even bleaker, as pastoralists there have lost all or a significant number of their livestock to the ravages of heavy drought. Even the erratic rainfall, once a source of relief, now poses a paradoxical threat. Torrential downpours trigger floods that cascade over parched terrain, eroding soil rather than replenishing underground aquifers and nourishing the earth. This cycle of degradation has ensnared pastoralists in an inexorable spiral of diminishing land quality and dwindling herds. Once verdant communal pastures have succumbed to drought and transformed into desolate gullies devoid of vegetation.

Beyond environmental degradation, the size of grazing land continues to shrink with increasing state-owned rangelands, crop cultivation, and urbanization. Conflicts over dwindling resources further strain the situation. On the one hand, encroachment from neighbouring ethnic groups and the migration of pastoralists to highland areas in search of water and pasture during droughts spark tensions and occasional confrontations. On the other hand, other external factors such as the invasion of locusts, COVID-19, political instability, and widespread invasive species compound the issues. There are also institutional challenges wherein national policies are often ill-suited to their semi-arid realities. For example, the recent tree planting campaigns across the country happened during drought in Borana areas, highlighting the disconnect between policy formulation and local environmental conditions.

Source: Author

Amidst these challenges, alternative livelihood approaches are being explored. Transitioning from pure pastoralism to agro-pastoralism is gaining traction in Borana and Somali areas, where pastoralists are increasingly engaged in small-scale crop production to complement livestock production. Yet, the viability of fully transitioning away from pastoralism remains contentious. The inherent risks of intensified land degradation in agricultural conversion echo the perils faced in pastoralism. Moreover, agriculture’s dependence on rainfall renders it susceptible to the same climatic variability that imperils pastoralism, potentially leading to recurrent crop failures and economic instability. 

Another alternative avenue is to encourage income and asset diversification among pastoralists through timely sales of livestock before droughts hit. By selling livestock in advance, pastoralists can minimize the devastating effects of inevitable losses and reinvest the proceeds in alternative ventures that provide more stable and diversified sources of income. For instance, they could invest in urban assets such as land, small businesses, or savings to secure financial stability.  Such actions, if taken timely, could offer emergency relief during times of crisis. 

However, the success of this strategy hinges on the availability of supportive policies and suitable access to markets. For example, governments and institutions can play a critical role by facilitating livestock sales through market infrastructure, providing timely information on impending climatic events, and creating policies that encourage such diversification efforts. 

One critical challenge pastoralists face during drought is the scarcity of feed for their livestock. Weak animals fetch very low prices in the market, forcing pastoralists to sell their healthier livestock instead. This is often done to purchase feed for the weaker animals (less likely to survive) and to meet household needs. Unfortunately, this approach means that the stronger, more valuable animals are sold off, leaving behind those less likely to withstand the harsh conditions. Without policies that provide alternative options, such as feed subsidies or fodder banks, pastoralists are often trapped in a cycle of selling their best assets in times of crisis, which weakens their long-term resilience.

The other important area of intervention is the need for land stewardship and ecological rehabilitation. Initiatives such as the construction of water-spreading weirs in degraded flood-prone areas, as witnessed in projects by GIZ in Ethiopia’s Afar and Somali regions, exemplify sustainable land management practices. These structures slow floodwaters, facilitating soil moisture retention and groundwater recharge, thereby fostering ecosystem resilience. These types of initiatives offer new opportunities by increasing groundwater levels, which can help communities access water during droughts and potentially serve as a source for small-scale irrigation. However, realizing such initiatives at a large scale demands unwavering commitment from the government, community, and civil societies. Rehabilitating degraded lands and nurturing sustainable ecosystems requires a collective resolve akin to defending territorial borders. 

In conclusion, pastoralism as a way of livelihood is at a critical juncture, and the future of Ethiopian pastoral societies is predicated on today’s actions and inactions of the various stakeholders. While there is no silver-bullet approach to addressing the multi-faceted problems confronting Ethiopian pastoralists, a steadfast commitment to holistic land management and developing and supporting alternative livelihoods could chart a new development trajectory and offer a beacon of hope amidst current uncertainties.¹

1. Note: The Author is a Doctoral Researcher at the Land Economics Group, University of Bonn, Germany. He can be reached at guyogodana544@gmail.com. ↩︎